Wildfire Risk in the Complex Terrain of the Santa Barbara Wildland–Urban Interface during Extreme Winds

Each year, wildfires ravage the western U.S. and change lives of millions inhabitants. Situated in southern California, coastal Santa Barbara has witnessed devastating past decade, with nearly all ignitions started by humans. Therefore, estimating risk imposed unplanned this fire-prone region will further increase resilience toward wildfires. Currently, a fire-risk map does not exist region. The main objective study is to provide spatial analysis regions at high fast wildfire spread, particularly first two hours, considering varying scenarios ignition locations atmospheric conditions. To achieve goal, multiple simulations were conducted using FARSITE fire spread model three modeling methods wind scenarios. method considers randomly distributed 500 m buffers around previously observed sites. Since these are mainly clustered roads trails, second 50 buffer built infrastructure, points sampled from within buffer. third assumes Euclidean distance decay probability trails up 1000 m, where selection linearly decreases transportation paths. then employed representing climatological pattern strong, downslope events. A large number modeled located near major-exit highway running north–south (HWY 154), resulting more simulated burning that This could impact evacuation route planning resource allocation under areas smaller, did far locations. In contrast, ignited during northerly winds quickly into wildland–urban interface (WUI) suburban urban areas.